Overproduction case study: women’s skinny jeans

Overproduction remains one of the fashion industry’s biggest problems, but it doesn’t have to be this way. To help brands solve this problem, WGSN has teamed up with OC&C to reveal how more accurate forecasting can be used to tackle overproduction head on. 

In this case study, we demonstrate how a mass-market retailer could have improved margin by £1m-1.5m in its women’s skinny jeans line if more accurate forecasting data was used.

Buying in line with the decline in market demand in 2021 would have resulted in 10-40k fewer units of terminal stock. 

In buying fewer units, the brand would have gained back £260k-600k in its Open-to-Buy plan, enabling it to invest more wisely in other categories based on the latest trend predictions, and therefore deliver further topline growth. 

The environmental benefits would also be significant. Producing even just 10,000 fewer skinny jeans is the equivalent to a reduction of 500kg of CO2, or 600 flights from London to New York. 

Using forecast data could have significant benefits for margin, terminal stock, Open-to-Buy and carbon reduction. 

In order to unlock these benefits, traditional buying and merchandising operating models require optimisation. A modernised operating model helps merchandisers reinforce their gut instincts with data, enabling them to procure sign-off on bolder product choices.

In conducting the research, OC&C utilised WGSN TrendCurve+ data to model the potential for planning and buying improvements. WGSN TrendCurve+ is the only fashion planning product that combines unrivalled data sources across social, search, shelf, shows and sentiment, with advanced machine-learning to tell you which trends to invest in, how deeply and when. With 90%+ forecasting accuracy on thousands of key items, silhouettes, prints, colours and design details, we empower brands to accurately invest for future consumer demand.

Download the WGSN x OC&C report here for need-to-know insights on how data can help your brand connect commercial and sustainability agendas, and better align with future demand.